View Full Version : Dr. Hawkins speaks about the next 100 years


kvrrd
08-03-06, 03:59 PM
I guess the Doctor asked a yahoo forum for answers about the furture of humans and earth and this was his response.

http://video.yahoo.com/video/play?vid=178f89d3d9987efabcf31c6fb8364fd6.654968

How can we survive the next hundred years.
Before the 1940's, asteroids were the major threat to the earth, since the last one came 70 million years ago, there is only a small chance that we will need Bruce Willis' services soon.

Nuclear war is the biggest threat. We came close to nuclear anihilation at least once in the last 50 years. A conflict between major powers would destroy the earth. Little countries would just cause a mess.

Climate change is happening at an ever increasing rate. We are dangerously close and need to curb CO2 emmissions. It may pass the tiping point where increasing temps will become self sustaining. The melting of the poles reduces the amount of solar energy is reflected back into space and so raising the temp. Rise in sea temp may release trapped CO2 from the bottom of the ocean, increasing the green house effect. Hope we don't end up like Venus 250 degrees C and raining sulphuric acid.

Other danges: accidental release of engineered virus. Increase tech power, we increase the number of ways things can go drastically wrong.

Humans race faces an increasingly dangerous future.

No aliens here, because when a civilization reaches our stage of development, it becomes unstable and destroys itself.
The situation is perilous.
The long term future of humans is safe if we expand into space.
This won't happen in the next hundreds years, so we need to be very careful.

We must hope that genetic engineering will make less something and aggressive..... and the video ends.

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/?qid=20060704195516AAnrdOD is where the questions from readers are?

SB_UK
08-03-06, 05:20 PM
Hey k - picked up on this idea in #506 evolutionary psychology ...
http://www.addforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=321416&postcount=506

s.

Nova
08-03-06, 08:27 PM
Bunch of doomsayers, LOL !!

I like Stephen Hawkins theories, though.
They put an interesting spin on where my 'thoughts' fly to.


Nova

Master Rat
08-03-06, 09:04 PM
I think Dr. Hawkins is depressed, with our collective knowledge of drugs here what should we prescribe him.:)

Tom

Nova
08-03-06, 09:47 PM
"Fairy Dust", LMAO !

He needs something to snap him out of it.

Crazy~Feet
08-03-06, 10:36 PM
The leading cause of death is to be alive. QED.


Crazy :cool:

boardtabitz
08-03-06, 11:24 PM
Slyvia Browne doesn't see life on earth past 95 more years.

*~ §EEK ~*
08-03-06, 11:42 PM
The Hawkin's video reminded me of a post I made on our Forums a couple of weeks ago concerning "Peak Oil".


Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global "Peak Oil."


To read the entire article, go here --> http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

...

Hyperion
08-04-06, 02:01 AM
Civilization is unlikely to come to an end. Possible, but unlikely.

There are many possibilities. After all, civilization as we know it could have ended at any time in the last half-century had the USA and USSR unleashed gigatons of thermonuclear warheads. However, this outcome was always highly unlikely, but nonetheless had a nonzero probability.

For that matter, the fall of the Roman Empire spelled the end of civilization as the Europeans knew it (unfortunately, this occurred not long after my ancestors would have arrived in Europe...a coincidence, I assure you).

I wouldn't be as concerned about peak oil. Either it will happen, or it won't. It is possible that conservation could prolong the end for a decade or so, but as no single entity has the power to enact global conservation, various countries will inevitably consume the slack. The only conservation would necessarily have to occur at the source, which is unlikely. However, the peak oil people screwed up the graph, you have to compare oil production and oil consumption. Where those two interset, and we're near one of those points, bad things will happen, but not the end of civilization. We still have plenty of coal, if worst comes to worst. Nuclear (fission) power is a viable alternative at them moment, and we may very well solve the mystery of usable hydrogen fusion power within a few decades. The LHC particle accelerator being built at CERN on the French-Swiss border will go online next year, and within a year or two may very well tell us new things about Electro-Weak unification. It is impossible to know what new technologies might potentially come about as a result of the findings there, especially if they find something unexpected. Massive bosons give me the creeps, but who knows what kind of technology could come about? For all we know, the topology of the Higgs Field could very well obey strange laws of physics which point us towards new energy dynamics.

However, the oil issue, along with climate issues and a few others, put us on a strict time limit. We (humanity as a whole) must make new discoveries quickly. The Earth will not support its current population on modern technologies for more than a century. The good news is that modern technology will almost certainly change over the next century, and if it's anything like the preceding one (oh dear lord), then that change will be far different, far stranger, and likely far greater than we could ever imagine.

*~ §EEK ~*
08-04-06, 02:46 AM
Civilization is unlikely to come to an end. Possible, but unlikely.

There are many possibilities. After all, civilization as we know it could have ended at any time in the last half-century had the USA and USSR unleashed gigatons of thermonuclear warheads. However, this outcome was always highly unlikely, but nonetheless had a nonzero probability.

For that matter, the fall of the Roman Empire spelled the end of civilization as the Europeans knew it (unfortunately, this occurred not long after my ancestors would have arrived in Europe...a coincidence, I assure you).

I wouldn't be as concerned about peak oil. Either it will happen, or it won't. It is possible that conservation could prolong the end for a decade or so, but as no single entity has the power to enact global conservation, various countries will inevitably consume the slack. The only conservation would necessarily have to occur at the source, which is unlikely. However, the peak oil people screwed up the graph, you have to compare oil production and oil consumption. Where those two interset, and we're near one of those points, bad things will happen, but not the end of civilization. We still have plenty of coal, if worst comes to worst. Nuclear (fission) power is a viable alternative at them moment, and we may very well solve the mystery of usable hydrogen fusion power within a few decades. The LHC particle accelerator being built at CERN on the French-Swiss border will go online next year, and within a year or two may very well tell us new things about Electro-Weak unification. It is impossible to know what new technologies might potentially come about as a result of the findings there, especially if they find something unexpected. Massive bosons give me the creeps, but who knows what kind of technology could come about? For all we know, the topology of the Higgs Field could very well obey strange laws of physics which point us towards new energy dynamics.

However, the oil issue, along with climate issues and a few others, put us on a strict time limit. We (humanity as a whole) must make new discoveries quickly. The Earth will not support its current population on modern technologies for more than a century. The good news is that modern technology will almost certainly change over the next century, and if it's anything like the preceding one (oh dear lord), then that change will be far different, far stranger, and likely far greater than we could ever imagine.
Hyperion, you make me want to stand up and yell "Amen"! LOL :D

And I'm not particularly religious! :)

Peace :)

SB_UK
08-04-06, 03:01 AM
I have a buncha' friends working at BAS (Cambridge,UK) --- the guys who discovered the damage that we're doing to the environment - the hole in the O3 layer ... ... ...
http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/Key_Topics/The_Ozone_Hole/

---maybe a little of why I'm particularly concerned.
These guys aren't slouches - and have no interest in scare-mongering.

...just regular dudes with an interest in doing the right thing.

- btw - I was an adviser in on their bio-initiative ... ... ... mostly related to effects of environmental change (global warming) on ecosystem change - 'land and sea ecosystems' ... these guys had various model organisms at different stages of life - and were attempting to define the change in geographical location - biochemistry ... parameters of life, in effect ... ... ... with increasing global temperature.

Sadly - the effects are striking - even now.
Continue to be striking.
Become ever more striking by the day.

I asked a couple about the criticism that is often levelled at the environmental posse - simply scare-mongering to encourage funding ... here's the response ...
'the guys here are the highest in their respective disciplines, and are here on account of a sense of responsibility to their fellow man --- if they wanted - the majority could walk out on academic research into any corporate position - without any trouble whatsoever - they'd be paid double to triple the amount --- and yet they don't' ... ... ... and he's right.

Right there is the 'spirit of academia' and not the amorality (?immorality) of a society based on consumerist (non-sustainable) principles (lack of).
Except - this isn't an academic argument any more ... ... ....

sb.

dormammau2008
08-04-06, 08:42 AM
steven hawkens makes some good points but two say that life wont be here in 90+ years time is very dautfull humans grow an leren all the time the odds ofve us wipeing ourselfs out are prity low it be more like have total control over world from govements or world athorty is more likely as to the oil i think with the tek going as fast as it is we will sovl this porblem well in time again it be who dose it frist thats makes the diff power wise yes as a sirteity grows an rushs a point theres are possable to wip them selfs out but you see theres a floaw in this thinking its only basiced on the past an only on us as humans ours in the uneveice maywell be total diff as we as a siyty now are moveing so fast the rules ofve yerterday dont apie today....its an eorr on our part to keep looking back at past sericty as there nothing like ours and in a few years time>> it be the same for us in our time futcer humans will look back on us an say what did they know even if they even bother to look back by that point eveything that can beimaged can be done even emotiaty>>liveing forever if you were to fixs most the food porblems an chagen a few things then haveing a secity that dont die by normal means could flushsssan make great head way one the things that sets humans aprt from anything eles is our ablity to abated to our inverment ...if primtivet man could do it in the iceage then we should find it easyer in this day an age .....exaplameble.....comnts astrodes can be dealt with if the world put asaide maoney an looked aboue this petery things its in the worlds intrested to help cos they stay in power if theres a world to goven vrices most part dont kill the host even if there was a world one like say birdflu there still ways around it even if you had it but you have to think way outside the box to do this thats were adders could come into there own ;.))))) i look at the climate an hear all they say but they dont have a full understanding yet how the weather styumes work so to say we doing this is again bad sincen at best we just dont know at this time co2 could be taken from the sea beds an looked away somewere where they wont thouw out an relase it again you have to think big an not think in money treams hard to do but it again is soleable if you look hard .......we maping the human mind an expaimenting with fission it wont be long beofr most the porblems hawking speaks ofve....>>>>i knows most wont ages with this or maybe they will all life is sustainable.......if we dread to dream then it will be dorm

SB_UK
08-04-06, 04:20 PM
.......we maping the human mind an.......Dorm ... this is the solution to the problem which Hawkings describes ... funnily enough - and it's real cool that you tied it into this thread - just so effortlesly ... and ... fer'sure - the mind *has* been mapped ... just a case of people waking up to the cartographer's work - 'Stabile des Cartes' ... his work is described here.
Therein lies the solution to our current crisis.

cool ... /s/b/./ ... way cool!

dormammau2008
08-04-06, 06:51 PM
thank you sb uk.... i see it as it is an yes thats the slotion to the porblem dorm lol

meadd823
08-06-06, 05:19 AM
So much to say only ten minutes of break left, at the most. Short and sweet un-sourced opinion, from gee..... I forgot to take those pills again (they were due two maybe three hours ago-Oh well)

Oil depleation is NOT our the biggie danger there are already alternative energies out there that have been stiffled by oil greed, Oh yes people our planet is being destroyed so a few people can make mega bucks . . . . Global warming IS problem or do all who are nay sayers live in caves 100 miles below the surface. We had 103 in England, what three weeks ago. New York had 100 degree temps last week, and frankly we had little winter at all in the US.

Golbal warming is made of the same clothes as the other danger people fighting over who controls the stupid oil . . . oil is not what will prevent us from evolving the stupid greed for wealth and power combined with intolerance and a million to many osterages is what knock us into non- existance.

To think humans are above this possibility is in my opinion folly.

How many thousands of speices have already gone extenct? Universal laws apply universally, we don't make universal laws however we can't help but be subject to them.

Hope this isn't to harsh tooo little time to edit will trust HF and his great editing ability if the need is there. Now back to my regular scheduled what was I doing oh yea going back to work!!! See you all when I get home!

lars
08-06-06, 05:30 AM
Anyone here ever hear of a Joe Cell? If not, do a search at Google video, or YouTube.com and when there search for "Joe Cell."

I have seen one of these in action, as there is a farmer that lives about 20 miles from me who installed one of these on his car about 9 months ago. It is an amazing technology.

Very cool, and very suppressed technology. Enjoy:
http://www.joecell.com.au/index.html

Here is a very similar cell technology developed by a man in Ohio. I highly recommend the little video clip there. This is very cool too.
http://www.waterfuelcell.org/

I don't blame anyone here if they do not believe this at first, I did not either until I saw it in action first hand.

meadd823
08-06-06, 09:26 PM
Anyone here ever hear of a Joe Cell? If not, do a search at Google video, or YouTube.com and when there search for "Joe Cell."

Okay whose turn is it to blow their house up? Gotta see this thing for sure . . . .Gary hasn't blown any thing up in over a year although he did catch a truck on fire briefly!


Some time ago had man in office he was recovering from an in-office procedure and we got on same topic he told me of an engine what could run one of those motor homes on wheels (old people use block highways with) it could get 75 miles to the gallon. Small cars like mine could get over a hundred, but he was stopped from producing them by big oil business.

I am not one to see conspiracy every where I look but I do see it in the oil business and I do see allowing them to continue unhalted as the biggest danger to man. We must stop this nonsense and use planetary friendlier energies, or these fossel fuels are going to end our existance one way or another.

They don't like planet friendly fuels because there is less of an ability to control them (that or they haven't thought of it) Imagine being able to tell Opec thanks but no thanks we don't need you any more = Heaven!

SB_UK
08-07-06, 02:18 AM
Oil props up our world of inequality.
Oil gives us our seemingly most cherished status symbol - the car.
Getting from A to B whilst being seen - has taken the place of simply just getting from A to B.

Though - look closely at society - and you'll see the backlash coming ... the oil industry - culture of vanity - culture of laziness is breeding a nation of obese individuals ... there's a reversal occurring now --- seemingly away from the car - into lower tech often human powered means of transport ... from designer clothes into self-made clothes ... from cosmetic surgery and makeup into the natural look ... from plastic and artificial into plain old natural ...

I'm more impressed by the guy playing the solo from Stairway to Heaven - than by the guy listening to some inane music on a high end system ... by a guy innovating in the kitchen with vegetables that they've grown and cooked, in relation to some guy sitting in some swanky restaurant downtown which they can later boast about --- by the guy with a sense of morality - rather than the guy with some drive to consume the world for their own selfish ends ...

... oopsy --- 'Heavy alert' ... 'beep beep beep' ...

... however - that's the way I feel ... and judging by some of my closest friends --- them too.

Here're a few mechanisms for forcing change --- shifting international conferences to international virtual conferences.
Recording lectures in all disciplines in .avi and making them available to download, by all those who care.
Opening up education (to degree level and beyond) - on the Internet --- with 1 central examination hall in each major city - should it still be required, for end of year exams ... that way --- geographical location - no longer an impediment to study ... and so much more ...

-really wearing some Kucci t-shirt or some Versucci g-string (especially if you're male) --- ain't a sign of anything other than urge to make some Italian family real rich ... dudes --- just send them your money --- their address is on the back of their perfume ... yeah! ... something like 'New York, Paris, London, Saskatchewan' ... ... ... kinda' ... ... ...

SB.

DimensionX
08-07-06, 12:59 PM
i've forgottern how much i like reading your posts SB_UK

i'm in total agreement, it's about time someone did something with an abundant source and turn it into something evironmentally friendly

(i believe the technical term for a post like this is "pointless" but i felt i had to add something ;) )

SB_UK
08-07-06, 02:05 PM
Hey multiD,

... crazy that we spend our life chasing stuff --- planning to buy stuff - stuff - loads of stuff - at Christmas - more stuff --- can we return those items? --- oh well ... you can't have too much stuff ... ... ...
... geeze ...
... ... what do we actually need to make life the best it can be? ... presumably if it's more stuff - then happiness will not be realised until we're all sat a'top of a mountain of all the stuff that there is ...
... but that's impossible ...
... ... and yet people seem to reach enlightenment and happiness ... which can mean only one thing --- stuff ain't in the equation ... ... ...

Big B renounced stuff --- Poppa JC wasn't renowned for his large collection of stuff ... :-) ... pretty sure M wasn't a stuffoholic either ... ... ... hmmm... hmmm... hmmm...

... near everything which matters is in the mind --- throw in a couple of other real items - maybe a computer and guitar --- and we're away ...

???when did life become so complex???

sb.

love your colours :-)

lars
08-07-06, 02:33 PM
Hey multiD,

... crazy that we spend our life chasing stuff --- planning to buy stuff - stuff - loads of stuff - at Christmas - more stuff --- can we return those items? --- oh well ... you can't have too much stuff ... ... ...
... geeze ...
... ... what do we actually need to make life the best it can be? ... presumably if it's more stuff - then happiness will not be realised until we're all sat a'top of a mountain of all the stuff that there is ...
... but that's impossible ...
... ... and yet people seem to reach enlightenment and happiness ... which can mean only one thing --- stuff ain't in the equation ... ... ...

Big B renounced stuff --- Poppa JC wasn't renowned for his large collection of stuff ... :-) ... pretty sure M wasn't a stuffoholic either ... ... ... hmmm... hmmm... hmmm...

... near everything which matters is in the mind --- throw in a couple of other real items - maybe a computer and guitar --- and we're away ...

???when did life become so complex???

sb.

love your colours :-)"When did life become so complex?" Probably when neolithic man created the clay pot, and with that creation came the storage of food, and hence the development of wealth. From then on, there have been the haves, and the have nots.

I find your question of "what do we actually need to make life the best it can be?" to be a very good question. I would think that the answer to that question would vary from person to person most likely. For me, I believe just as Lao Tzu when he said, "those who know they have enough, are rich."

kvrrd
08-07-06, 04:56 PM
Digging around for peak oil. The following is from the Army Corp of Engineers, 9/2005.
http://www.peakoil.net/Articles2005/Westervelt_EnergyTrends__TN.pdf

Energy Implications for Army Installations

The days of inexpensive, convenient, abundant energy sources are quickly drawing to a close. Domestic natural gas production

peaked in 1973. The proved domestic reserve lifetime for natural gas at current consumption rates is about 8.4

yrs. The proved world reserve lifetime for natural gas is about 40 years, but will follow a traditional rise to a peak and

then a rapid decline. Domestic oil production peaked in 1970 and continues to decline. Proved domestic reserve lifetime

for oil is about 3.4 yrs.
World oil production is at or near its peak and current world demand exceeds the supply. Saudi Arabia is considered the

bellwether nation for oil production and has not increased production since April 2003. After peak production, supply no

longer meets demand, and prices and competition increase. The proved reserve lifetime for world oil is about 41 years,

most of this at a declining availability. Our current throw-away nuclear cycle will consume the world reserve of low-cost

uranium in about 20 years. Unless we dramatically change our consumption practices, the Earth’s finite resources of petroleum

and natural gas will become depleted in this century. Coal supplies may last into the next century depending on

technology and consumption trends as it starts to replace oil and natural gas.

We must act now to develop the technology and infrastructure necessary to transition to other energy sources and energy

efficient technologies. Policy changes, leap-ahead technology breakthroughs, cultural changes, and significant investment

is requisite for this new energy future. Time is essential to enact these changes. The process should begin now.

Our best options for meeting future energy requirements are energy efficiency and renewable sources. Energy efficiency

is the least expensive, most readily available, and environmentally friendly way to stretch our current energy supplies.

This ensures that we get the most benefit from every Btu used. It involves optimizing operations and controls to minimize

waste and infusing state of the art technology and techniques where appropriate. The potential savings for the Army is

about 30 percent of current and future consumption. Energy efficiency measures usually pay for themselves over the life

cycle of the application, even when only face value costs are considered.



That pdf file is pretty good. All kinds of facts...facts abound. But I don't know CAN the army corps of engineers be trusted?????? I've always found that they kinda minimize some issues.
The news about part of the canadian pipeline breaking due to rusty pipes and reducing oil production by like 8% is not good news.
The necrous (sp?) necraceous? clouds appearing over the Antarctic. The air is way cold way up there and it gobbles up the ozone layer all by itself.
I think a lot of these numbers and statics are based on OUR behavior - of course any natural occurences or disasters can't be taken into account. Oopps, we didn't take THAT into account....

Developing a fuel more efficient than ethanol to augment gasoline is happening. That didn't take VERY long, did it? And I'm glad to see that SUV sales are down...EVERYONE started making them and buying them and people found out that they aren't cars! We've owned Suburbans for years...now a Silverado, to take the dogs and surf boards to the beach...
Motorcyles - yeah, that's a good option, even those little mopeds for buzzing around locally.
I can imaging hearing everyone cryin' out in a decade or so about how noone every said anything....why didn't we just go and takeover some country's production while they still had some???


And I looked all over Joe's cell... I don't get it yet. I understand the priming and self sustaining parts...but the actual motion and what it is exactly that is circulating seems strange. The components are not that familiar to me, so basically mean nothing to me - any parts that I can correlated with previous info. Gotta do more digging on that one.

Too much stuff. We've been downsizing for several years now - but it's still not enough. Oh yeah, we're going to sell all that stuff on ebay. Anyone wanna buy boxes of unopened football/baseball cards from the eighties? How about 5000 beanie babies? Or a huge file cabinet filled with UNREAD comic books? None of this is any of MY compulsion but it is Randy's... Imelda, too.

Ok, I'm done.

DimensionX
08-07-06, 05:07 PM
i feel very out of place to be honest, i've never been taught the value of money and i've never really asked for anything when i was a kid, so now, i despise money and i'm not that bothered if someone took away everything i own....well...i would prefer to keep my guitar but apart from that i wouldn't be that bothered.

look around and you see loads of people that show off the things they own, it's like ok well done, how much did that cost, that much? really? ok so you did a repetative and boring task for that long to earn enough money to get that enough though money comes from machines that print it

whats really funny is that theres people that earn money by printing it (also they earn nothing compared to what they print).

adaptive natures need adaptive surroundings is there anything quite as chameleon as society

funny thing is all we need is company, food and water (we get the exercise by catching or growing the food)

guess the majority of us aren't wanting the simple life (of course we're taught that as we grow up anyway)

people that are taught when growing up that stuff is great seem to do better in society (that is if they realise that they could just steal stuff)

SB_UK
08-07-06, 05:41 PM
... funny thing is all we need is company, food and water (we get the exercise by catching or growing the food) ... #492 forum thread::Evolutionary Psychology

"... so - 'I feel therefore I am' and 'All I need' - well ... love in all senses and boy how many senses are there to love??? 'let me count the ways ...' ... ... ... water and air - for now --- but not forever ..."

'All~I~need'++

SB.

*~ §EEK ~*
08-07-06, 09:06 PM
The Lyrics to this tune fit quite nicely into this thread! :D

---------------------
"Workin' it"
By Don Henley
--------------------

Ah, it's open season here my friend
It always is; it always has been
Welcome, welcome to the U.S.A.
We're partying fools in the autumn of our heyday

And though we're running out of everything
We can't afford to quit
Before this binge is over
We've got to squeeze off one more hit

We're workin' it
Workin' it

Soon you will be dancing face-to-face
With the limits of ambition and the scars of the marketplace
Welcome to the land of flame and fizz
Where you will learn that packaging is all that heaven is

We got the little black car, the little black dress
Got the guru, the trainer, the full court press
We got the software, hard drive, CD-ROM
We got the exploitation.com

We got the pager, cell phone, bootleg methaqualone
The media, the message: "you are what you own"
We got the agent, lawyer, lapdog, voyeur
Talk show, book deal, round mouth, square meal

Ah, we're so busy covering our *sses, we just can't commit
"Oh, back off, don't bother me, baby
Can't you see...I'm workin' it"
Workin' it

It's plain to see Miss Liberty has not yet come of age
But, she loves to feed the animals
as long as they're locked up in the cage
And everybody knows the girl's got balls of brass
Aw, kiss my *ss

We've got a whole new class of opiates
To blunt the stench of discontent
In these corporation nation-states
Where the loudest live to trample on the least
They say it's just the predatory nature of the beast

But, the barons in the balcony are laughing
And pointing to the pit
They say, "Aw look, they've grown accustomed to the smell
Now, people love that sh*t
And we're workin' it."
Workin' it

We got the short-term gain, the long-term mess
We got the suffocating, quarterly consciousness
Yes man, run like a thief

New York to Hollywood, hype and glory
Special effects, and no story
Yes man, run like a thief

Workin' it
Workin' it

Well, you don't know who the enemy is
You don't know
You don't know who the enemy is

Ah, Company man
"Eight for me, one for you"
(Workin' it)
"Very fair"

Business as usual
Business as usual

...

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Written by an American.
For Americans.
And finally.....
Posted here by an American.


Peace,

SB_UK
08-08-06, 05:19 PM
yes ... that's it.


It's plain to see Miss Liberty has not yet come of age
... but will just ever so soon ...


SB.

relvinnian
08-08-06, 10:33 PM
Civilization is unlikely to come to an end. Possible, but unlikely.

There are many possibilities. After all, civilization as we know it could have ended at any time in the last half-century had the USA and USSR unleashed gigatons of thermonuclear warheads. However, this outcome was always highly unlikely, but nonetheless had a nonzero probability.

For that matter, the fall of the Roman Empire spelled the end of civilization as the Europeans knew it (unfortunately, this occurred not long after my ancestors would have arrived in Europe...a coincidence, I assure you).

I wouldn't be as concerned about peak oil. Either it will happen, or it won't. It is possible that conservation could prolong the end for a decade or so, but as no single entity has the power to enact global conservation, various countries will inevitably consume the slack. The only conservation would necessarily have to occur at the source, which is unlikely. However, the peak oil people screwed up the graph, you have to compare oil production and oil consumption. Where those two interset, and we're near one of those points, bad things will happen, but not the end of civilization. We still have plenty of coal, if worst comes to worst. Nuclear (fission) power is a viable alternative at them moment, and we may very well solve the mystery of usable hydrogen fusion power within a few decades. The LHC particle accelerator being built at CERN on the French-Swiss border will go online next year, and within a year or two may very well tell us new things about Electro-Weak unification. It is impossible to know what new technologies might potentially come about as a result of the findings there, especially if they find something unexpected. Massive bosons give me the creeps, but who knows what kind of technology could come about? For all we know, the topology of the Higgs Field could very well obey strange laws of physics which point us towards new energy dynamics.

However, the oil issue, along with climate issues and a few others, put us on a strict time limit. We (humanity as a whole) must make new discoveries quickly. The Earth will not support its current population on modern technologies for more than a century. The good news is that modern technology will almost certainly change over the next century, and if it's anything like the preceding one (oh dear lord), then that change will be far different, far stranger, and likely far greater than we could ever imagine.Civilization will be wiped out at some point... that is almost certain. Whether it will happen in the next hundred years or not is the real question. My bet is that we don't make it to 2100. This world is teetering on the edge of many disasters. New perils are created each moment simply by the increasing complexity of our world.

Our ability to tip the balance of our atmosphere in the right direction is very questionable. With the exponential increases in both physical and electronic worldwide connectivity, our world needs (and has needed for some time) to function as global community. Worldwide diplomacy is just politics and protecting national security and business interests. And like most politics, good science hardly exists. Talks or plans of preparing our world for the many calamities that EVENTUALLY WILL happen have been nothing more than propaganda and pretense. Nothing has been done that actually could have a real impact on the dwindling state of our planet's resources.

The United States consumes around 25% of the world’s natural resources and yet we have 5% of the world’s population. But China on the other hand has approx. 20% of the world's population. With the staggering state of our trade deficits and the ferocious growth of both China and India, we could be looking at per capita consumption that is close to the United States in the years to come. Then the United States and China would be consuming 125% of the world’s resources, between two countries, which of course is impossible. What this means is that our resource gathering will have to grow exponentially, and our worldwide consumption will still have to depress greatly. The whole process will strip the earth further and further.

In '03 China added 11,000 new private cars per day, or 4 million a year. Obviously, the rates of consumption and waste production are only accelerating. The changes we are making to our climate today cannot be reversed tomorrow, or next year, or next decade. Environmental changes this drastic take centuries, and we may not have that time.

Glaciers all over the world are retreating every year: around 90% of the world's glaciers. For example Greenland's largest glacier, DOUBLED its forward progress from 1997 to 2003. Alaskan temps have risen 5 degrees Fahrenheit since 1960 and 8 deg f in the winter. Alaskan glaciers now add over 13 trillion gallons of water to our oceans each year. In <st1:metricconverter productid="1995 a" w:st="on">1995 a</st1:metricconverter> 770 square mile ice shelf disintegrated suddenly in Antarctica. "After 400 years of relative stability, nearly 1,150 square miles (2,978 km<sup>2</sup>) of the Larson B and Wilkins ice shelves collapsed between March 1998 and March 1999." (ref (http://www.climatehotmap.org/antarctica.html)). This crazy melting cycle is reducing our earth's natural reflection of the suns energy: IE white reflects light/energy. Also, warming, rising seas may have devastating effects on the earth’s deep ocean currents, which could destroy the climate patterns we have today.

Microbes are constantly mutating. Usually the mutations kill them or impair them and they do not last. But now and again a mutation proves beneficial. The world is running out of antibiotics. Over 70% of hospital-acquired bacteria are resistant to at least one antibiotic, and over 2 million people are infected in hospitals (of all places right?), in the US each year. In Russia most tuberculosis is resistant to 5 or more antibiotics and there have been many resistant to ALL available antibiotics. Polio, mumps, and TB have broken out in the US in the past 2 decades after years of quiet, due to poor vaccination efforts and drug resistant strains imported from overseas where antibiotics are misused. In the US also, over prescription of antibiotics has accelerated the problem. Poor quality drugs are used by unskilled practitioners in developing countries. These strains are disseminated and poor surveillance and public health efforts allow the problems to escalate even in developed countries.

Since smallpox was eradicated, there are officially two sites in the world that have samples of the virus. One is the US CDC and another is in Russia of all places. The standards of the Russian facilities are not fully known because the sites very secret. Smallpox has a death rate in humans of at least 30%, but the mouse pox virus is different for mice... Researchers, searching for clues on how pox viruses do their magic, actually stumbled upon a terrifying discovery. By introducing a protein called Interleukin-4, Australian researchers changed that death rate to 100% for their superpox experiment. Every single one died. The experiments were replicated.

In the early 90's Ebola swept Zaire. The terribly deadly virus turned out to be spread by very close contact with those infected and improper sanitation. It was not airborne or particularly easy to catch. It spread like a wildfire in Zaire because of its terrible healthcare "system". But an airborne version of Ebola would wipe out a ton of people. Viruses that once were benign can easily shift to become killers. They can exchange genes or jump from species to species. Especially birds. A worldwide epidemic with such a microbe has not occurred in quite some time. But we continue to become more global and mixed. With our misuse of antibiotics, our populations rubbing elbows, and the natural properties of viruses, our time will come... and statistics say it should be soon.

The US public health system in on the verge of collapsing. In fact public health in the US is not even public health. It is corporate profiteering slapping many very expensive Band-Aids on people. Public health is not medicine, it is much more encompassing. Public health is clean water, waste removal, environmental standards, education on prevention, vaccination, follow-up care, access to good care throughout all economic classes. Public health is the goal of spending as little on medicine as possible, rather than finding miracle cures.

Because of our insane trade imbalances, the United States serves one purpose in this world: consumption. We don't export anything, and we borrow billions every MONTH from foreign countries to have the goods we have. The toll is only rising. As other countries catch up to us, our danger increases. If one major country calls on us (very unlikely, but) everyone will pull out, because they risk losing their piece of the pie. We'd be screwed. Again, probably never going to happen, but what WILL happen is the balance will shift to other countries and dependence on US consumption will decrease. This will kill our economy. With the miserable state of our education system, we don't have much to offer. The east is producing scientists and engineers like Double Cheeseburgers, and we produce increasingly less. Funds for basic research are paltry here, but go to South Korea and you'll have your own lab! And what's worse, most of the basic research funding comes not from the government, but from corporations with an agenda. The quality of our science is declining. Without exporting tons of basic resources you need mass-manufacturing. Without mass-manufacturing you need technology and service. And without producing innovation, science, and technology, you are left with nothing. And so we consume.

So the world's most powerful nation is on the edge. While the world's soon-to-be big daddy is pumping out science, manufacturing, technology, and in the process TONS of waste. From space, you can actually SEE toxic environmental debris traveling through the upper atmosphere from China to towards us. (link (http://www.esa.int/esaCP/SEMEE6A5QCE_index_1.html#subhead2))

Our complex world is in such a trashy state and over the long haul we are not likely to recover. So much is needed to turn things around, and yet it only gets significantly WORSE each day. The Middle East is swept by a war that only grows. Other countries are being drawn into the foray; countries shouting for global attention that now have reasons to talk. But we only alienate ourselves more.

The idea that some miracle cure (sub-atomic physics, fusion, etc.) will save us is almost funny when taken in the larger context. Honestly, no offense to Hyperion intended at all. But holding on to the many beautiful and awe inspiring aspects of our world will not take away from the gravity of the situation. People are not going to join hands as findings from the large hadron collider come upon applications that ripple through societies and solve many of our most pressing problems.

I'm not saying we can't survive. I live with the assumption that we will, because it is that mentality that will drive me to do what little I can to contribute. But logically it's a false hope.





References:
1. http://www.worldwatch.org/node/810
2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming
3. http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/041209_runaway_glacier.html
4. http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/0731-04.htm
5. http://www.climatehotmap.org/antarctica.html
6. http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol5no1/okeke.htm
7. http://www.zkea.com/archives/archive05002.html
8. http://www.esa.int/esaCP/SEMEE6A5QCE_index_1.html#subhead2

Recommended reading: Betrayal of Trust by Laurie Garrett

meadd823
08-09-06, 01:33 AM
Civilization will be wiped out at some point... that is almost certain. Whether it will happen in the next hundred years or not is the real question. My bet is that we don't make it to 2100

Well I am pretty sure I can bank on one thing, I won’t!

What year is this any way? The other day it was 1983, now some one telling me it is 2006.





Our ability to tip the balance of our atmosphere in the right direction is very questionable. With the exponential increases in both physical and electronic worldwide connectivity, our world needs (and has needed for some time) to function as global community

Very revelation-ional yes I took, the orange pills about an hour ago; however I think the fever is making the effect a bit weird. So no telling what will pop out. Glad I am not moderating this section, as I probably need moderating more than any one else! :o


What does man see when he looks straight into the face of his own death? Depends upon the man I can tell ya that, Tis for sure deal dude. Seen a many go from this life myself. Strange as it may seem they pay me to do that. Life is a cycle as is not-life!

Global system sounds like a global battle for who will be in control there of. Pooper scoopers we can’t handle oil! Heck our governments can’t handle the one country they are porting to run now. To whom gets the entire world? Far tooo many takers any way?

Matter ~ anti-matter
Time ~anti-time
Light ~Dark
Fact ~Fiction




I find your question of "what do we actually need to make life the best it can be?" to be a very good question. I would think that the answer to that question would vary from person to person most likely. For me, I believe just as Lao Tzu when he said, "those who know they have enough, are rich."

Ya know about meaningless??? Who knows true meaning any way??? Most only think they do . . . ya what answers to what is important in this life? Ask some one who is a looking dead into the end of their own . . . .it doesn’t matter who you are, what you own, what you have done, or has been do to you this can not be escaped, this "not". I have learned this small lesson from the many whom have allowed me into this very personal experience known as the “ending of being” …..(well here any way)


and yet people seem to reach enlightenment and happiness ... which can mean only one thing --- stuff ain't in the equation

Two things can not be replaced in this life (or any other for that matter)

#1 Time
#2 People with whom you share it!



???when did life become so complex???

When we were told to grow up and be a man, be responsible learn to play your part, you must be a part of this social structure and to help build the box, the box of man. In this box we shall put in our society they must live thier in side it is for thier own safely!

. . . . . . . . . . . *~* . . . . . . . . . . *~*. . . . . . . . . . *~*. . . . . . . . . . *~*

Ever herd of the cabs in a bucket analogy? Some one told me this while I was at the bottom of one of my self made pits. Dug a hole forgot to climb out until the pit was too deep! The crab analogy.

You put a crap in a bucket, alone he will figure a way to climb out?

You put a crab in a bucket with other craps none will escape.

How is it one crap can climb out yet more can not?

Easy all the crabs will pull each other down trying to get out of the bucket each time one begins to make progress other crabs will see and grab a hold of the escaping crab wanting out them selves but end up dragging the escaping crab back down into the bucket! This will happen at nauseam in buckets of crabs and boxes of men!

This is what happens to meadd823 on Adderall and a fever. :p


I just found my wiggles but they aren’t exactly where I put them. :eek:

Okay I will put up this part (more to come should I remain conscious – perhaps I will be more or less delirious) I gotta post this, then I MUST add some chemicals to my cats . . . . .yea they really love that(good thing they can’t read) . . . .fleas love “hot” woman with fever just a little to well! I simply don’t look good in poka dots! I would prefer to determine when it is time to wiggle, scratch, not the darn woman eating bugs!!!! :mad:


Be back . . . .hopefully

:D

SB_UK
08-09-06, 02:09 AM
You put a crap in a bucket, alone he will figure a way to climb out?'bucket biochemistry' is the phrase for bioreactions in large (>nanolitre volumes) - I needed a smile (not related to this thread - have spent years reconciling these worries) - and thanks for 'bucket genetics' ...

Holy climbing craps ... Batman! ... :-) ...
... :-) ... The poo's alive ... :-) ...

... :-) ... S(outh Park) (forever Cartman)B.


...hopefully...
I hope so too - but my 'hope' is more of a certainty ... T'll be back ... it's written in the movies.

meadd823
08-09-06, 04:28 AM
Every day I am forced to see things in a better light

#1 I am glad I am not the only moderator (any more) who has a tendency to speak what is on ze ole mind, it is nice to see another like my self with some times strong opinion. ;)

#2 After reading relvinnian above post the possibility of a shorten life span doesn’t seem like such a bad thing after all! Gee until now I was a bit depressed by my declining health. :rolleyes:

#2 b – now you got to post some thing that will make me feel better about the price of medications. :(


Worldwide diplomacy is just politics and protecting national security and business interests. And like most politics, good science hardly exists.

Smokin the mirrors? Then what? gotta a light?



Nothing has been done that actually could have a real impact on the dwindling state of our planet's resources.

Nothing globally but there are those of us whom society at large is basically unaware. We could teach you what we know but our ways are beneath most, no education just a bit of ADHDer imagination. There are really those of us who are saving the resources of this planet and it ain’t costing us a cent matter of fact for people like us it is call a living. . . .yeppers all it take is one or two hyperactive non-boxed untamed individuals, a bit of exercise called manual labor, does take a truck and a few tools but there are those of us recycling for real. . . .making a living by selling other people trash, if it was used once then it was useful, and many things could be again, no degree required and no I ain’t a lie’in! Just gotta know your trash! :p


Microbes are constantly mutating. Usually the mutations kill them or impair them and they do not last. But now and again a mutation proves beneficial. The world is running out of antibiotics. Over 70% of hospital-acquired bacteria are resistant to at least one antibiotic, and over 2 million people are infected in hospitals (of all places right?), in the US each year.

YIKES can we back up a bit okay?

#1 Not all infections acquired in a hospital are due to cross contaminations. Of all places unless considering the number of people with infections crammed into the average hospital combines with the number of people having surgery,ect in reality very few infections are cause by poor medical practices.

a) Patients can have an over growth of naturally occurring bacteria such a staph . . .in other wards they carried the bacteria into the hospital with them, a bacterial infection of this nature is often due to a screw up in the natural bacteria, yeast balance. We all have bacteria in or intestines, skin, ect. This is one of the reasons antibiotics can and do cause diarrhea, and yeast infection (mostly in women) :eyebrow: because antibiotics some times kill of the body’s own bacteria and because the antibiotic kills off some of this bacteria the yeast are allowed to “over grow” :eek: The balance of “bugs” in our body’s is really quiet amazing however I have found few want to hear the gory detains. :o



2. Doctors for Adults (http://www.doctorsforadults.com/topics/dfa_anti.htm)

***Source QuoteThe improper use and abuse of antibiotics has led to the development of antibiotic resistance. The most common misuse and abuse of antibiotics are:

•Physicians prescribing antibiotics for viral infections

•Not finishing the full dosage of the antibiotic. When an antibiotic prescription is not finished (even leaving one or two pills), it leaves some bacteria alive and "resistant" to future antibiotic treatment***End Source Quote

So please take all those little pills given to you. Relvinnian, some of that stuff you hyperlink was really good. I plan to print out some and distribute about the place I work, focusing on doctor’s in-boxes. We have a couple of physicians who tend to over prescribe antibiotics. :mad: I have a hard time remaining silent because it not only does the patients little good their behavior endangers the staff.

Figuered the "NTer" thing to do :eek: is have another job lined up before I :soapbox:



I am not sure . .how bacteria become resistent to antibotics? (http://www.abc.net.au/science/slab/antibiotics/resistance.htm)


How ever the "bug" thing is only one problem I still think the oil thing is much more problematic. . . .I would love to live long enough for some one some where to tell OPEC to "shove it"! Hey ever one has to have at least one delusional desire. :p


> > > > > > >*< < < < < < < > > > > > > >*< < < < < < < > > > > > > >*< < < < < < < > > > > > > >


Nuclear Fusion: --> Forget it, we aren't smart enough yet. (http://zebu.uoregon.edu/1998/ph162/l1.html)


I still thing we gotta figure out how to ditch the fossil fuel thing.

Solar energy - Is it a fantasy? (http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~kubicki/lecturenote/alternativeenergy.html)

How can it be used? Is it completely environmental friendly?


Some are coming up with some interesting ideas

Tital waves, sea sickness or dandy idea? (http://www.abelard.org/briefings/fossil_fuel_replacements.htm#tidal_and_wave)

Feel like poop going to call it a night . . . . . . . . . . . :faint:

Nova
08-09-06, 08:11 AM
I never thought I'd see the day, when you'd mention Cartman, SB !!

Now you're the one who made me smile !!! (0:

kvrrd
08-09-06, 05:52 PM
http://www.projectcensored.org/publications/2005/15.html this is an article about the Interleukin-4 that relvinnian stated.
So I've been looking for more current info/results.
http://jvi.asm.org/cgi/content/abstract/79/15/9515
Journal of Virology, August 2005, p. 9515-9526, Vol. 79, No. 15
0022-538X/05/$08.00+0 doi:10.1128/JVI.79.15.9515-9526.2005



Expression of Interleukin-4 by Recombinant Respiratory Syncytial Virus Is Associated with Accelerated Inflammation and a Nonfunctional Cytotoxic T-Lymphocyte Response following Primary Infection but Not following Challenge with Wild-Type Virus

Alexander Bukreyev,<SUP>1</SUP><SUP>*</SUP> Igor M. Belyakov,<SUP>2</SUP> Gregory A. Prince,<SUP>3</SUP> Kevin C. Yim,<SUP>3</SUP> Katie K. Harris,<SUP>3</SUP> Jay A. Berzofsky,<SUP>2</SUP> and Peter L. Collins<SUP>1</SUP>



Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases,<SUP>1</SUP> Molecular Immunogenetics and Vaccine Research Section, Vaccine Branch, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland,<SUP>2</SUP> Virion Systems, Inc., Rockville, Maryland<SUP>3</SUP>

Received 15 November 2004/ Accepted 19 April 2005 <!-- ABS -->The outcome of a viral infection or of immunization with a vaccine<SUP> </SUP>can be influenced by the local cytokine environment. In studies<SUP> </SUP>of experimental vaccines against respiratory syncytial virus<SUP> </SUP>(RSV), an increased stimulation of Th2 (T helper 2) lymphocytes<SUP> </SUP>was associated with increased immunopathology upon subsequent<SUP> </SUP>RSV infection. For this study, we investigated the effect of<SUP> </SUP>increased local expression of the Th2 cytokine interleukin-4<SUP> </SUP>(IL-4) from the genome of a recombinant RSV following primary<SUP> </SUP>infection and after a challenge with wild-type (wt) RSV. Mice<SUP> </SUP>infected with RSV/IL-4 exhibited an accelerated pulmonary inflammatory<SUP> </SUP>response compared to those infected with wt RSV, although the<SUP> </SUP>wt RSV group caught up by day 8. In the first few days postinfection,<SUP> </SUP>RSV/IL-4 was associated with a small but significant acceleration<SUP> </SUP>in the expansion of pulmonary T lymphocytes specific for an<SUP> </SUP>RSV CD8<SUP>+</SUP> cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) epitope presented as a<SUP> </SUP>major histocompatibility complex class I tetramer. However,<SUP> </SUP>by day 7 the response of tetramer-positive T lymphocytes in<SUP> </SUP>the wt RSV group caught up and exceeded that of the RSV/IL-4<SUP> </SUP>group. At all times, the CTL response of the RSV/IL-4 group<SUP> </SUP>was deficient in the production of gamma interferon and was<SUP> </SUP>nonfunctional for in vitro cell killing. The accelerated inflammatory<SUP> </SUP>response coincided with an accelerated accumulation and activation<SUP> </SUP>of pulmonary dendritic cells early in infection, but thereafter<SUP> </SUP>the dendritic cells were deficient in the expression of B7-1,<SUP> </SUP>which governs the acquisition of cytolytic activity by CTL.<SUP> </SUP>Following a challenge with wt RSV, there was an increase in<SUP> </SUP>Th2 cytokines in the animals that had previously been infected<SUP> </SUP>with RSV/IL-4 compared to those previously infected with wt<SUP> </SUP>RSV, but the CD8<SUP>+</SUP> CTL response and the amount of pulmonary inflammation<SUP> </SUP>were not significantly different. Thus, a strong Th2 environment<SUP> </SUP>during primary pulmonary immunization with live RSV resulted<SUP> </SUP>in early inflammation and a largely nonfunctional primary CTL<SUP> </SUP>response but had a minimal effect on the secondary response.<SUP> </SUP>
Can someone else interpret this please - what I read is one group got IL-4, the other got wt RCV. And then I lost track of what is what when .... does this mean that there might be some use of developing IL-4 or wt RSV for immunization purposes?
I did find this... 2) Engel SA, Olshan AF, Savitz DA, Thorp J, Erichsen HC, Chanock SJ. Risk of small-for-gestational age is associated with common anti-inflammatory cytokine polymorphisms. Epidemiology. 2005 Jul;16(4):478- 86.

Implications: These results are somewhat paradoxical in that decreased production of interleukin-4 caused both increased risk for spontaneous pre-term birth and decreased risk for babies small-forgestational age. However, increased production of anti-inflammatory cytokines increased the risk of small-for-gestational age. These data suggest that maintaining the proper balance of pro- and antiinflammatory cytokines is crucial for good pregnancy outcomes and deviations in either direction may increase the likelihood of pre-term birth or low-birth weight babies.

and Life is a cycle as is not-life! QED

kvrrd
08-09-06, 06:01 PM
"Not finishing the full dosage of the antibiotic." absolutely. I knew people who'd swallow penicillin like aspirin.

and what is the NT type????

kvrrd
08-09-06, 06:09 PM
what was that joke/story/parable about the donkey in a well? The farmer was supposed to bury this mule so he got him into the well and started throwing dirt in the well to cover him but the donkey kept packing the dirt down until he was able to climb out and they the donkey kicked the snot outta the farmer. something like that,

relvinnian
08-09-06, 08:18 PM
YIKES can we back up a bit okay?

#1 Not all infections acquired in a hospital are due to cross contaminations. Of all places unless considering the number of people with infections crammed into the average hospital combines with the number of people having surgery,ect in reality very few infections are cause by poor medical practices. Wrong. Almost ALL hospital-aquired infections are due to improper sterilization practices, in the studies of sanitation. Where are you getting this? When studying hospital-aquired infections, the most common confounding factors are controlled for, leaving a statistically significant result. Even in the U.S. thousands die every year because of poor sterilization. Studies have shown that at some point, almost all doctors, nurses, and other practitioners have serious lapses in sanitation protocols. Investigations have linked many outbreaks right back to one simple stupid mistake.

Obviously, many people in hospitals are more PRONE to infections because of their state of injury or illness. They are in the hospital for some reason. The point is, most of those infections are antibiotic resistant due to poor practice, and also that a huge number of those infections are due to negligence.

*~ §EEK ~*
08-09-06, 08:44 PM
That's right people!

Stop picking those scabs! :D

You are brewing a nasty cocktail for disaster under that scab that could wipe out mankind as we know it! LOL :D

lars
08-09-06, 08:58 PM
Wrong. Almost ALL hospital-aquired infections are due to improper sterilization practices, in the studies of sanitation. Where are you getting this? When studying hospital-aquired infections, the most common confounding factors are controlled for, leaving a statistically significant result. Even in the U.S. thousands die every year because of poor sterilization. Studies have shown that at some point, almost all doctors, nurses, and other practitioners have serious lapses in sanitation protocols. Investigations have linked many outbreaks right back to one simple stupid mistake.

Obviously, many people in hospitals are more PRONE to infections because of their state of injury or illness. They are in the hospital for some reason. The point is, most of those infections are antibiotic resistant due to poor practice, and also that a huge number of those infections are due to negligence.I agree that many Dr's, nurses, and other practitioners do have lapses in sanitation protocols, but exactly what studies are you referring to that show that to be the primary cause of infections aquired while in a hospital? I have never seen a study showing this, and I really would like to read more about that, so if you remember where you read that please share it here.

When you say, "Wrong. Almost ALL hospital-aquired infections are due to improper sterilization practices," I have to say that is not correct.

I'm sure your probably familiar with the term "nosocomial infections?" If not, these are infections that originate or occur in a hospital, or inside a hospital-like setting.

Nosocomial infections are the result of three factors occurring in tandem:

1. high prevalence of pathogens
2. high prevalence of compromised hosts
3. efficient mechanisms of transmission from patient to patient which is commonly called "chains of transmission"

These three factors lead not just to a higher likelihood of transmission of pathogens within hospitals, but potentially to an evolution of enhanced disease causing potential among microorganisms present within hospitals. Granted you might say that the reason there is such a high prevalence of pathogens in hospitals is due to improper sterilization practices, the truth is people that enter hospitals are not sterile. There is a constant influx of new pathogens entering hospitals on a daily basis. All this being said, I really would be interested in reading more about these studies you mention.

*~ §EEK ~*
08-09-06, 09:23 PM
The truth is people that enter hospitals are not sterile. There is a constant influx of new pathogens entering hospitals on a daily basis.Yep, and all those pathogens come riding in on those non-sterile patients, who cough, vomit, bleed, urinate, defecate, and sweat out all those nasties all over the hospital, including all over me! LOL :D

Pretty soon I'm probably going to have to wear a total isolation Def-con 5 suit to keep from getting exposed to all the nasty bugs people bring into the hospital! :)

Gowns, gloves, masks, and goggles, barely feels even adequate with some of these patients!

Shoot, I'm so paranoid now days that I wash my hands before I urinate! LOL :D

Peace! :)

lars
08-10-06, 12:49 AM
Yep, and all those pathogens come riding in on those non-sterile patients, who cough, vomit, bleed, urinate, defecate, and sweat out all those nasties all over the hospital, including all over me! LOL :DI'm sorry you're getting all those "nasties" on you Seek from non-sterile patients, but I guess it comes with the territory as they say. However, Dr's, nurses, and other staff that work in hospitals are not necessarily sterile either per se. :rolleyes:

I was not trying to point the finger at any particular group that might be responsible for nosocomial infections as much as I was just trying to say that it is a problem that is not primarily caused by medical staff lapses with sanitation protocols. I think it's important to point out that relvinnian does make a very valid point about sanitation, and this is something that can always be improved upon in every hospital around the globe in an effort to prevent as many nosocomial infections as possible.

There really are so many factors that overlap to create the problem of nosocomial infections, but in my opinion these infections essentially represents the nature of things, litteraly.

PS OK, I will now step down from my antimicrobial soap box. :soapbox:

*~ §EEK ~*
08-10-06, 01:16 AM
OK, I will now step down from my antimicrobial soap box.:soapbox::D LOL Very funny! LOL :D

I love word play! :)

meadd823
08-12-06, 10:32 PM
Wrong. Almost ALL hospital-acquired infections are due to improper sterilization practices, in the studies of sanitation

You are looking at studies about sanitation practices or nosocomial infections!? ALL can’t be even right any more than studies saying ALL ADDErs have ODD! Same animal different fur!



When studying hospital-acquired infections, the most common confounding factors are controlled for,

Kind of like ODD is controlled for when studying ADD? Why would one need co-morbids to study a condition that exist without it?. Sorry “controlled for” doesn’t fly can’t “control” for a factor, and if the study says all infection are due to medical personnel’s unsanitary practices I shall go with Seek on that one because ALL doesn’t even exist in real research!

No such thing as “control for” that is a subjective factor not fact. I know the scientific research community buys into this but the ADHD mind says *not*, infection control department pretty much goes with ADD mind set! If you can get infections from unsanitary practices and infections due to body glitches, and infections due to secondary things like advanced age, diabetes, picking at your wound then we need to figure out which is which and what occurs when Percentages of noscomial infections due to non-sterile fields with ALL other causes ruled out , figures should be based upon ratios per surgical patient capita! The rest is research garbage and is of little realistic value!



The point is, most of those infections are antibiotic resistant due to poor practice, and also that a huge number of those infections are due to negligence

Thousands of people die each day because they can’t afford health care toooo .Gee I wonder which death toll is higher?

Fact is nope not due to neglect because that hospital would not be open long believe me. . .nosacomial infection are taken very seriously! Yes infections can be caused by a break in procedure but I find it real difficult to believe all, I am not too sure into buying "most".

Here is a real to life scenario

A surgical patient is on the unit and a visitor comes in who is carrying the common cold, said visitor sneezes. covers their mouth, but doesn’t wash their hands. . The patient now shows same visitor their wound, lift up the dressing and the visitor touches the skin next to the wound in an effort to see it better . Now the patient will have a viral infection of a wound the hospital will be blamed for in one of these little studies simply because the infection began in the hospital. However this infection had nothing to do with unsanitary staff practices but guess what it will sure shootin show up as the hospitals fault!

I find it interesting that most people who expect perfection are quick to site how unsanitary hospitals are don’t work in them! If all the people that come in the hospital would remember to please leave their germs out side we would have so fewer infections crop up.

This is what a hospital is:

A bunch of sick people, surgical patients, those under going chemo, various people running in and out of ER all hours of the day and night, and cram them into a very large box! Germs come from every one and every where yep they will be interbreeding like rats. Then add to this already massive germ warfare in a box at least a dozen or two visitors who are carrying infections of their own and who do not observe universal precautions (or proper hand washing) do some number crunching and I believe you would find out just how hard of a job medical people have and just how good of a job we do. Remember medical people are real people taking care of real people! Funny how many people who do not work in health care tend to forget that!


Yep, and all those pathogens come riding in on those non-sterile patients, who cough, vomit, bleed, urinate, defecate, and sweat out all those nasties all over the hospital, including all over me! LOL

Yeah I do a pretty good barf dodge, feces skate myself! The first thing I do when I get home is peal off uniform and scrub with much soap and water!

JACH pretty well keeps tabs on the numbers of in hospital infections. If you get too much of the same kind of infection i.e. a pattern they are all over it like flies on feces. Hospitals and hospital personal take infections especially noscominal ones very seriously . . . too may occur in one area the infection control people will be on top of your unit ahead of joint commission (no the joint commission doesn’t smoke pot but some sure need to) I won’t even mention the health department if the infection is of a communicable nature. These guys don’t just look at studies they look for patterns they are looking into each case specifically . . . if staff is causing infections due to non-sanitary practices then there will be a noticeable pattern! All infections that begin in the hospital are tracked like a fox by blood hounds on hunting day!

think it's important to point out that relvinnian does make a very valid point about sanitation, and this is something that can always be improved upon in every hospital around the globe in an effort to prevent as many nosocomial infections as possible.

I will use one of Hyperion’s sayings the only way they could regulate hospital infection control procedures any further would require a scope and a rectal tube!

There are newer and better ways of doing things found all the time the use of the lazar went a long way toward increasing the safely of surgeries because of the simple fact surgeon didn't have to make such a big hole in the patient. Any time you put a hole in a the body or insert some thing into a hole in the body there is a dramatic increase of infection!

;) I still like a fighsty moderator though; even when I strongly disagree :o


There really are so many factors that overlap to create the problem of nosocomial infections, but in my opinion these infections essentially represents the nature of things, litteraly

Agreed . . . . evolution at it not finest!


Nosocomial infections are the result of three factors occurring in tandem:

1. high prevalence of pathogens
2. high prevalence of compromised hosts
3. efficient mechanisms of transmission from patient to patient which is commonly called "chains of transmission"

I can agree with this also. . . . . .

*~ §EEK ~*
08-13-06, 11:41 PM
Who killed the electric car!

http://www.sonyclassics.com/whokilledtheelectriccar/

*~ §EEK ~*
08-14-06, 04:02 AM
Some more of that "End of the world as we know it".

http://www.financialsense.com/series3/intro.htm

*~ §EEK ~*
08-14-06, 04:23 AM
Eating Fossil Fuels

[ Note: The most frightening article FTW has ever published is now a free story for all to read. Our paid subscribers read it last October. As Peak Oil and its effects become a raging national controversy it's time everyone reads the story that puts the most serious implications of Peak Oil and Gas into perspective. Your biggest problem is not that your SUV might go hungry, it's that you and your children might go hungry. What has been documented here is no secret to US and foreign policy makers as China experiences grain shortages this year and, as CNN's Lou Dobbs recently reported, the US and Canada will soon no longer be the world's breadbasket. - MCR ]
.
[Some months ago, concerned by a Paris statement made by Professor Kenneth Deffeyes of Princeton regarding his concern about the impact of Peak Oil and Gas on fertilizer production, I asked FTW's Contributing Editor for Energy, Dale Allen Pfeiffer to start looking into what natural gas shortages would do to fertilizer production costs. His investigation led him to look at the totality of food production in the US. Because the US and Canada feed much of the world, the answers have global implications.
.

What follows is most certainly the single most frightening article I have ever read and certainly the most alarming piece that FTW has ever published. Even as we have seen CNN, Britain's Independent and Jane's Defence Weekly acknowledge the reality of Peak Oil and Gas within the last week, acknowledging that world oil and gas reserves are as much as 80% less than predicted, we are also seeing how little real thinking has been devoted to the host of crises certain to follow; at least in terms of publicly accessible thinking.
.
The following article is so serious in its implications that I have taken the unusual step of underlining some of its key findings. I did that with the intent that the reader treat each underlined passage as a separate and incredibly important fact. Each one of these facts should be read and digested separately to assimilate its importance. I found myself reading one fact and then getting up and walking away until I could come back and (un)comfortably read to the next.
.
All told, Dale Allen Pfeiffer's research and reporting confirms the worst of FTW's suspicions about the consequences of Peak Oil, and it poses serious questions about what to do next. Not the least of these is why, in a presidential election year, none of the candidates has even acknowledged the problem. Thus far, it is clear that solutions for these questions, perhaps the most important ones facing mankind, will by necessity be found by private individuals and communities, independently of outside or governmental help. Whether the real search for answers comes now, or as the crisis becomes unavoidable, depends solely on us. – MCR]

To Read the Complete Article go here --> http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/100303_eating_oil.html

SB_UK
08-14-06, 03:26 PM
I agree with pretty much everything that you've been writing.
Sounds a little odd --- but if I were to put all of the various issues which I have an issue with - against care for the environment - I'd choose care for the environment --- it's the single overarching constant which all else predicates upon.
Forget cures for diseases - or access to 'financial wealth' or an unlimited travel card - anything which I might ever realistically strive for - placed into one bucket - cannot counterbalance the desire that I have to correct the disaster humanity wreaks upon all of our environment.

The thread 'evolutionary psychology' ploughed solidly into this subject - and truly - all problems can be swept aside by an understanding of the mind (as an evolutionary translator) --- the desire to win a mate with wealth - to consume all that lies in front of us --- all evolutionary characteristics which should have died with our evolutionary development ...

... but which didn't ...

... because silly 'ole man - figured that evolution resulted in our physical self --- but hasn't cottoned onto the fact that our mental self - is also an echo of our origins.

--- the desire to win a mate with wealth ---
are characteristics of the animal - think the lion with his mane and the peacock with his plumage ... ... ...
--- to consume all that lies in front of us --- as characteristics of the virus or bacteria - grow until 'grow no more' --- and then await another host or food source --- except - another planet just ain't happening ... ... ...

As Dorm mentioned above --- it's gonna' dawn on us --- better had dawn on us *soon* that ~love~, bread, water and air --- are about all that we need --- and that anything else - anything material - *can* be communal.

That'd be *~tipping point~* - the point at which we watch as the greedy-rich and the corrupt power-hungry guys - as the self-important are rendered self-impotent.

Think snivelling shrivelling shrivelled prunes.

Man has moved on - we *do* understand the pattern of evolution (forum thread::'evolutionary psychology' '3,4,13' ... the pattern of evolution towards 'love') ... and we see the desire for 'stupid stuff' as an evolutionary legacy ... ... ...

... ... ... this message is scientifically scrutable (the pattern) --- and I have the sincerest of beliefs that - *if* recognized - *if* the pattern were seen by a wider audience - that ...well... immediately >after> the realization of the folly of our and their ways - and the disgust of certain desires (lower and now legacy desires) ... next will follow their cessation and then the change that we desire ... ... ...


'Imagine - John Lennon' - says it all ... *really* - the pattern though is there --- and we as pattern-matchers (Stabile - really, though) - have seen it ... ... ...


... so - there it is ... expose the lower evolutionary desires - and watch them die - we need it *real* bad --- we *don't* need oil - or gold or diamond - or battery powered butt cleansers - or heated toilet seats - or intelligent toilets --- geeze ... even Mr Hankey Poo has a PDA now ...!...!...

We're digging our own graves - and as if that wasn't bad enough - we're building ever more technologically advanced gaz-guzzling diggers and which on two different levels are taking us down (but oh! so! not! to strawberry fields) ... ... ...

Comical isn't it all --- why!!!?!!! do we do this to ourselves!

s-t-u-p-i-d ... is a word - perhaps an entry in a dictionary -
stupid(n) (1) See:man
stupid([i]n) (2) See (1)

'gotta' get ourselves back to the garden' - hell yeah!
... ... ... right now - right here - *right*?*

S.


... yeah, right.

*~ §EEK ~*
08-14-06, 10:33 PM
s-t-u-p-i-d ... is a word - perhaps an entry in a dictionary -
stupid(n) (1) See:man
stupid(n) (2) See (1)


'gotta' get ourselves back to the garden' - hell yeah!
... ... ... right now - right here - *right*?*Exactly! :) And thank you for saying it "right"! :)

Last edited by SB_UK : Today at 02:47 PM. Reason: Because it's the end of the World (as we know it)Oh, and thank you for patterning my obsessive musical inclination too! LOL :D

dormammau2008
08-15-06, 10:53 AM
musical dos ehave a patten to it .....the better the patten the more we chowin in to it ......>>>with out music porble would be...end the world >>YEAR 2525 ha ha ...woulders how meany more pattens we can find in our lifes??? dorm

SB_UK
08-15-06, 11:36 AM
end the world >>YEAR 2525In The Year 2525 by Zager and Evans
... [Reloaded] ...

In the year 2525[2025]
If man is still alive.
If woman can survive, they may find.
... ... ... { } ... ... ...
In the year 6565[1965]
Ain't gonna need no husband, won't need no wife.
You'll pick your son, pick your daughter too.
From the bottom of a long glass tube. Whoa-oh
In the year 7510[1975]
If God's a-comin, he oughta make it by then.
Maybe he'll look around himself and say.
Guess it's time for the judgment day.
In the year 8510[1985]
God is gonna shake his mighty head.
He'll either say.I'm pleased where man has been.
*Or tear it down and start again*. Whoa-oh
In the year 9595[1995]
I'm kinda wonderin if man is gonna be alive.
He's taken everything this old Earth can give.
And he ain't put back nothing.Whoa-oh

[[[... ... ... And so it begins again ... ... ...]]]

Now it's been ten thousand years
Man has cried a billion tears.
For what he never knew***,
now man's reign is through.

But through eternal night.
The twinkling of starlight.
So very far away.
Maybe it's only yesterday.

In the year 2525
If man is still alive.
If woman can survive, they may find.

In the year 3535 {fade}

SB.

*** oh - we knew - we surely did - and we absolved ourselves of all responsibility to correct the problem - and chose a 1 for 1 deep butt cleansing session instead - (after all - they're just too expensive to pay full price on) - and 1 for 1's are just such good value --- and it'd be just so perfect if we've a clean rear-end - when we're rear-ended - nth (final) day [Planet Earth] - as something extremely sharp is rammed up our rear-e... ... you know the rest ... ... ... 'just so, just *so* perfect'~

meadd823
08-15-06, 08:44 PM
I am at post #45

I am lost there is no up no down left and right are the same direction yet I survive any way!

this message is scientifically scrutable (the pattern) --- and I have the sincerest of beliefs that - *if* recognized - *if* the pattern were seen by a wider audience - that ...well... immediately >after> the realization of the folly of our and their ways - and the disgust of certain desires (lower and now legacy desires) [incidentally - not all desires are dropped] ... next will follow their cessation and then the change that we desire

The secret is before us, it lies in acceptance as I have spoken before. It begins with acceptance of self then extends to others. This is not agreement nor it is about being like every one else. A peek inside has already been seen as to the correctness of man kind did not arise to the top of the food chain by our similarities but out of our diversities . . . . now for the other shoe I have not spoken of publicially. . . .we can be diverse and those diversities will operate in our favor so far almost automatically if we have but a single goal. Man kind developed imaginary to illustrate mind and this slowly spread through out the population that which began in isolated caves and hidden places eventually became shared by all in the center of society. Imagery to show the spiritual journey the emotion the part that lies in the core of us all our being shared by images which turned into symbols and evolved into these words I really suck at . . . . .acceptance of diverse journeys to share a common goal to express to other that which we experience with in self . . . . .evolution is not a pretty process nor is it an easy one I am not even sure it will be a stoppable one but the diversity advantage comes via different approaches to a common goal that lies with in before it can become what is expressed without.

We may be from different back grounds, ethnic groups beliefs and education however we are all have a stake in Earth and evolution . . . . .ending the competitive process and instilling the one of being a species of this planet that now depends on us to return what it has already given to each of us LIFE. . . .greed generates fear remove monetary value, social classes, categories and yes social boxes (preconceived notions – few ADDers have them any way) and we have begun to save our planet and our selves from that which seeks to devour like a cancerous virus!

Excellent writing guys . . . . .now on a different note my puppy would like me to accept the fact she needs to visit a few bushes and then act upon that acceptance by action!

meadd823
08-15-06, 09:58 PM
(Children Of The Moon) by THE ALAN PARSONS PROJECT Album Eye In the Sky


Pay no attention to the writing on the wall
The words seem empty 'cause there's nothing there at all
We let the wise men beat the drums too soon


We were just children of the moon
No one to turn to
Nowhere to run to even if we could

Too late to save us but try to understand
The seas were empty there was hunger in the land
We let the blind man lead the way too long
Easy to see where we went wrong
Nothing to live for
Nothing to die for

CHORUS
We're lost in the middle of a hopeless world
Lost in the middle of a hopeless world
Children children of the moon watch the world go by
Children children of the moon are hiding from the sun and the sky
Children children of the moon watch it all go by
Children children of the moon are blinded by the light in their eyes

No one to turn to
Nowhere to run to even if we could


Follow the pilgrim to the Temple of the Dawn
The altar's empty and the sacrifice is gone
We let the madmen write the golden rules
We were no more than mortal fools
Nothing to live for
Nothing to die for

CHORUS
We're lost in the middle of a hopeless world
Lost in the middle of a hopeless world
Children children of the moon watch the world go by
Children children of the moon hiding from the sky


obtained from (http://www.lyricsandsongs.com/song/52840.html)

meadd823
08-17-06, 04:27 PM
wow didn't mean to be a thread killer it's really a pretty cool song!

SB_UK
08-17-06, 04:38 PM
No one to turn to
Nowhere to run to even if we could

Nothing to live for
Nothing to die for
Lennon ... Imagine ...

Imagine there's no heaven-It's easy if you try
Nowhere below us-Above only sky

Nothing to kill
or die for

.....................
Notably also ... ... ...
.....................
people Living for today

no countries And no religion too

no possessions-No need for greed or hunger-Sharing all the world...


SB.

APP == JL == our sentiments ==>==>==>== so what're we gonna' do 'bout it?

kvrrd
08-17-06, 05:48 PM
Here's map about global warming - but it's outdated. It would be beneficial to see a current map and to note the changes. http://www.climatehotmap.org/

Union of Concerned Scientists: http://www.ucsusa.org/

*~ §EEK ~*
08-18-06, 03:46 AM
http://a.abcnews.com/images/2020/abc_last_days_060816_sp.jpg

'Last Days on Earth'

How smart are we as a civilization?

Smart enough to control our destiny and avoid the cataclysms that may end life as we know it?

Watch "Last Days on Earth," a special 2-hour edition of "20/20," Wednesday, Aug. 30, at 9 p.m.

For thousands of years, different religions have warned Earth about Armageddon and the final days.

We are now living in an age where scientists are adding their voices and their evidence in support of end-of-the-world possibilities.

"Last Days on Earth" is a program that could change the way you see your world and yourself.

The world's top scientists, including Stephen Hawking, considered the foremost living theoretical physicist, describe seven riveting scenarios detailing the deadliest threats to humanity.

Some can destroy the planet, others have the ability to render us extinct, and all have the power to destroy civilization.

How likely are they to occur, and what exactly would happen if they did, and could we survive?

"Last Days on Earth" goes beyond science fiction to science fact.

Using state-of-the-art visual effects, it will take viewers on a journey that is both breathtaking and terrifying, from the outer reaches of the universe to the inner world of DNA, with an around-the-globe tour in between.

"Of all the generations of humans that have walked the surface of the Earth — for 100,000 years, going back when we first left Africa — the generation now alive is the most important," said Michio Kaku, professor of theoretical physics at City University of New York.

"The generation now alive, the generation that you see, looking around you, for the first time in history, is the generation that controls the destiny of the planet itself."

"Last Days on Earth" is anchored by Elizabeth Vargas. Rudy Bednar is the executive producer. Michael Bicks is the senior producer.

http://abcnews.go.com/2020/story?id=2319986

*~ §EEK ~*
08-18-06, 03:58 AM
Changes in Our Solar System: Is Trouble Coming? Hawking Answers
The End of Humanity Could Be Closer Than You Thought

Aug. 16, 2006 — For the first time in recent memory, the universe is under scrutiny and the solar system we all learned in grade school may be turned upside down.

Astronomers are now reassessing what makes a planet a planet, so curiosity about our existence in this solar system is peaking.

Could the human race go extinct?

According to Stephen Hawking, one of the world's leading theoretical physicists, the possibility of our extinction should be a wake-up call to us all.

Hawking sat down with ABC News to give his perspective on the devastation our civilization could face in the next century.

Here are a few excerpts from Hawking's conversation with Elizabeth Vargas.



Vargas: How crucial is the next 100 years to the survival of the human race?

Hawking: We face a number of threats to our survival, from nuclear war, catastrophic global warming, genetically engineered viruses, and the number is likely to increase in the future, with the development of new technologies, and new ways things can go wrong.

Although the chance of a disaster to planet Earth in a given year may be quite low, it adds up over time and becomes a near certainty in the next 1,000 or 10,000 years. By that time, we should have spread out into space, and to other stars, so a disaster on Earth, would not mean the end of the human race.

However, we will not establish self-sustaining colonies in space for at least the next 100 years, so we have to be very careful in this period.

Vargas: What do you think is the biggest threat to humanity?

Hawking: Nuclear war is still probably the greatest threat to humanity, at the present time. Even after the end of the Cold War, there are still enough nuclear weapons stockpiled to kill us all several times over, and new nuclear nations will add to the instability. With time, the nuclear threat may decrease, but other threats will develop, so we must remain on our guard.

Vargas: Do you think it is possible that the human race will go extinct in the near future?

Hawking: There is a possibility that the human race could go extinct, but it is not inevitable. This is not a prophesy of doom, but a wake-up call.

Vargas: Conversely, do you ultimately believe that the human race will act in time and make the necessary changes in order to survive? If so, what are the necessary changes?

Hawking: Most of the threats we face come from the progress we have made in science and technology. We are not going to stop making progress, or reverse it, so we have to recognize the dangers and control them. I'm an optimist, and I believe we can.

Vargas: The universe is a vast and powerful place with forces that we are only now beginning to understand. Some of them, such as black holes and gamma ray bursts, though extremely unlikely, are capable of destroying our planet. What do these type of phenomena tell us about humanity's place in the universe?

Hawking: Events like a nearby cosmic ray burst, or a collision with a black hole, would be devastating to life on Earth, but they are extremely unlikely. They haven't happened in the 4½-billion-year history of the Earth so far, so the chance of them occurring in the near future is very low. The Earth is in much more danger from human action than from natural disasters.

Vargas: Asteroids provide a paradoxical example of our relationship with the universe. These near-Earth objects may have cleared the way for our evolution, yet could ultimately destroy our very way of life. What do asteroids tell us about the randomness and fragility of human existence?

Hawking: It seems to be 70 million years since the last mass extinction of species caused by collision with an asteroid. This is probably longer than the average period between major asteroid collisions, and this allowed the human race to develop. One might regard this as pure luck, but there is another way to look at it.

There must be many Earth-like planets in the universe, but only those with long periods between asteroid collisions develop intelligent life, which can then ask the question, "Why were we so lucky?"

The answer is, if we hadn't been lucky enough to have a long period between asteroid collisions, we wouldn't be here to ask the question.

Vargas: The separate threats of nuclear war and bioterrorism make an effective argument that we as humans have tremendous difficulty controlling what we create. What does this say about the human species?

Hawking: Up to now, aggression has been an attribute with definite survival advantages. So it has been hard-wired into our genes by Darwinian evolution. Now, however, it may destroy us all by nuclear or biological war, if we cannot control our instinct by our reason. But our aggression is responsible for only some of the dangers we face. Others, like climate change, arise from instabilities in the increasingly complex structure of our way of life. We need to be quicker to identify such threats, and act before they get out of control.

Vargas: Many scientists in the field of artificial intelligence believe that it is only a matter of time before computers will be autonomous, thinking beings that will surpass humans. Do you think this is possible?

Hawking: I think there's no qualitative difference between the brain of an earthworm and a computer. I also believe that evolution implies there can be no qualitative difference between the brain of an earthworm and that of a human. It therefore follows that computers can, in principle, emulate human intelligence, or even surpass it.

Up to now, computers have obeyed Moore's Law, which says that computers double their speed and memory capacity every two years. Human intelligence may also increase because of genetic engineering, but not so fast. The result is that computers are likely to overtake humans in intelligence, at some point in the next 100 years. When that happens, we will need to ensure that the computers serve us, and not themselves.

Vargas: A majority of scientists now believe that mankind is changing the Earth's climate to an unmistakable and potentially catastrophic degree. Do you think it possible for us to stop global warming from getting worse?

Hawking: The danger is that global warming may become self-sustaining, if it has not done so already. The melting of the Arctic and Antarctic ice caps reduces the fraction of solar energy reflected back into space, and so increases the temperature further. Climate change may kill off the Amazon and other rain forests, and so eliminate once one of the main ways in which carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere.

The rise in sea temperature may trigger the release of large quantities of carbon dioxide, trapped as hydrides on the ocean floor. Both these phenomena would increase the greenhouse effect, and so global warming further. We have to reverse global warming urgently, if we still can.

Vargas: Natural phenomenon like supervolcanos seem to prove the point that man is still at the mercy of the natural world. Will we ever be able to tame nature?

Hawking: Life on Earth has survived volcanos for 4 billion years. It is not natural forces that are the great threat, but ourselves.

http://abcnews.go.com/2020/story?id=2319559&page=1

*~ §EEK ~*
08-18-06, 06:27 AM
Come on SB sing with me! :)

"It's the end of the world as we know it!" :D

I've had just that one little part of that song running thru my brain for nearly a week now! I doubt that anyone knows any of lyrics other than the chorus! LOL :D

It's just seems to pop out from nowhere and before I know it I'm singing......

"It's the end of the world as we know it (And I feel fine)" :D

SB_UK
08-18-06, 06:41 AM
... have spent much of my last 2 and some years here working throught the various issues relating to ADD - resulting in my current unshiftable belief - that ADD is an evolutionary adaption (to the future) and *not* a legacy from the past.
... previously - all around have seemed to consider this idea as some kinda' need to repackage ADD in a positive light - to make it more palatable.
How pointless would that be!
Call ourselves glADDers instead of ADDers - for no reason other than it being a happy word! geeze ... ... ... geeze!!!

geeze - how superficial would we need to be - to be taken in by tha ruse!

one more time --- geeze!!!

ADD provides us with the essential tool which we need to survive - as a species - I can describe this at length - but brevity - is better - here ... I guess ... ... ... and simply ADD gives us the eyes to see the problems we face and the strength to do something about them.

*Everyone* alive can be ADD - it is merely the change in structure of mind which arises from extensive education (or information in - not certificates gained) --- and all of the bad stuff we experience is contextual disorder - the pain of seeing stuff and wanting to do stuff - when many around us just dont get it.

So - there it is - the more ADD - the more violently pro-active we become to do something about the stuff we see as clear as day - in front of us.

Kinda' stands to reason doesn't it though - when we learnt to talk (mind v. I) - it probably felt pretty strange - and when we learnt to write (mind v. II) (also) --- now mind v. III -->-- imagine logical, moral and effective communicators ->- all traits which boil down to just one feature ->- a structure of mind (logical structure) which has evolved from 4d to 13d.
That's all --- and 13d relates only to linkage - don't worry about anything more complex than that ... ... ...

So here's the deal --- the faster ADD hits us - the faster we do something about all a'this mess -->-- and the answer - just to leap ahead a bit -->-- is simply to cut consuming ... ... ...

'All we need' IS NOT much ... ... ... geeze - really - is *so* not much ... ... ...

I have this urge to collapse some giant bubbles - and then watch as butterfly and domino effects work in unison ... ... ...

S.

SB_UK
08-18-06, 06:46 AM
"It's the end of the world as we know it!" *~I am there ...*~ (http://www.addforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=255840&postcount=75)~* (http://www.addforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=255840&postcount=75)... there am I~*

SB.

... ... ...ending of course... ... ...

It’s the end of the world as we know it,
and I feel fine? Do I feel fine?? Do you feel fine???

meadd823
08-20-06, 05:35 AM
For thousands of years, different religions have warned Earth about Armageddon and the final days. We are now living in an age where scientists are adding their voices and their evidence in support of end-of-the-world possibilities.

What I would give if we were in debates where there are no topic bans! No worries, I can work it out with in the rules. Been practicing my whole life . . . .speaking a language not my own so . . . .in short answer yea something like that!





The world's top scientists, including Stephen Hawking, considered the foremost living theoretical physicist, describe seven riveting scenarios detailing the deadliest threats to humanity.

OOOO I know the deadliest threats to humanity is man-kind ( not sarcasm just irony)

Wonder how many years it took to get that . . :foot: . .never mind probably shouldn't wonder out loud!





Some can destroy the planet, others have the ability to render us extinct, and all have the power to destroy civilization. How likely are they to occur, and what exactly would happen if they did, and could we survive?


Not if it renders us extinct . . . . :rolleyes: hense the term extinct!





Hawking: Most of the threats we face come from the progress we have made in science and technology.

Faith laughs once again back at those called her nonsense, Many of those calling them selves enlightened educated who have long sense forgot simple common knowledge of the ancient of days. This would be to seek first the one gift all man kind should have riding along side progress. It is now the only thing that will save us and it is soo obvious . . . . . this would be faiths "soul sister" wisdom!





The result is that computers are likely to overtake humans in intelligence, at some point in the next 100 years. When that happens, we will need to ensure that the computers serve us, and not themselves.

Man kind the creator of a new conscious life form the computer . . . . “we will need to ensure that they do not serve themselves” . . . . . Hmmm think I am just going to smile and wave at this one! :D





The rise in sea temperature may trigger the release of large quantities of carbon dioxide, trapped as hydrides on the ocean floor. Both these phenomena would increase the greenhouse effect, and so global warming further. We have to reverse global warming urgently, if we still can.

Hmmm now where does faith stand in the eyes of the intellectual, so many are in disbelief for all their worldly knowledge has only lead to our present day delima and now we stand at the edge of our own destruction.

Some of us believe this is only a transition of on ward and up ward (note: I have purposely written to be inclusive of all view points *not* specifications to remain within the guidelines) It is now not up to the materialistic they are the ones who got us into this fine mess, It isn’t the outward portion of our being upon which our fate rest but upon the inner most being which has so far remained ignored beyond categorization. Isn’t the irony glaringly obvious? :soapbox:


Pay no attention to the writing on the wall!




Hawking: Life on Earth has survived volcanos for 4 billion years. It is not natural forces that are the great threat, but ourselves.

Gee deje ve We needed a science dude to tell us that? (gravy)





and simply ADD gives us the eyes to see the problems we face and the strength to do something about them.

Got a light? :p




*Everyone* alive can be ADD - it is merely the change in structure of mind which arises from extensive education (or information in - not certificates gained)


Non categorization = non-classification . . . ever miss the obvious physical traits of some one simply because you did not notice them as being any different than your own even through to every one else they were glaringly obvious! Then you might have ADD! :D

*~ §EEK ~*
08-20-06, 10:42 AM
Well, just to complicate things a little more! :)

Here's an article about the current state of the global warming debate in the scientific community!

Enjoy! :)

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Scientists Disagree On Link Between Storms, Warming
Same Data, Different Conclusions

By Juliet Eilperin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, August 20, 2006; A03

A year after Hurricane Katrina and other major storms battered the U.S. coast, the question of whether hurricanes are becoming more destructive because of global warming has become perhaps the most hotly contested question in the scientific debate over climate change.

Academics have published a flurry of papers either supporting or debunking the idea that warmer temperatures linked to human activity are fueling more intense storms. The issue remains unresolved, but it has acquired a political potency that has made both sides heavily invested in the outcome.

Paradoxically, the calm hurricane season in the Atlantic so far this year has only intensified the argument.

Both sides are using identical data but coming up with conflicting conclusions. There are several reasons.

Using different time periods to chart hurricane patterns can influence the results. Different academic backgrounds also affect how researchers interpret the data. Climate scientists tend to test hypotheses and examine the underlying causes of climate variability over time, which makes them more comfortable identifying broad climate trends. Hurricane forecasters tend to be more focused on predicting the intensity and paths of individual storms, and often focus on factors such as wind shear and water temperature that can cause a storm to shift within a matter of days or hours, so they tend to emphasize natural variability over long-term climate shifts.

Inevitably, the scientific debate has spilled into the policy arena. Former vice president Al Gore took up the issue in his recent film "An Inconvenient Truth," suggesting that Katrina and other severe storms reflect a broader trend clearly traceable to global warming. Last week, environmentalist Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute, released a report that called the quarter of a million Katrina evacuees who will not return home "the world's first climate refugees."

On the other side, Myron Ebell, energy and global warming policy director at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, said these pronouncements amount to political opportunism. In contrast to activists who quickly attributed last year's hurricanes to climate change, he said, his side is not ready to claim victory just because this year has brought fewer intense storms.

"I don't think that says much one way or another about whether global warming causes hurricanes," said Ebell, whose group receives funding from the fossil-fuel industry.

Scientists who doubt a link with global warming say this year's average Atlantic hurricane season simply shows how variable weather can be. Christopher Landsea, who works in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Research Division, published an opinion piece in the journal Science late last month in which he argued that data indicating that recent hurricanes have been more intense than those in the 1970s and '80s may be based on flawed information. Measurement technologies were less sophisticated then and may have underestimated the strength of earlier storms, he said.

"We're woefully underestimating how strong hurricanes were back then," said Landsea, who wrote that five tropical cyclones that were originally classified as Category 3 would be rated as Category 4 today. "I'm sure it's confusing to the general public, since you have different scientists saying different things. We're all trying to figure out the same thing: What's going on with our climate?"

In contrast to the Atlantic, the Pacific is experiencing a much more active than usual storm season this year. Earlier this month, Typhoon Saomai, the strongest to hit China in half a century, crashed into the country's southeast coast and flattened tens of thousands of homes. It killed more than 300 people and prompted the evacuation of more than 1.5 million.

A number of factors might account for the fact that this year's Atlantic season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 1, has so far produced far fewer named storms than last year's record-breaking season, and not a single hurricane. Sea surface temperatures are not as warm this year -- the ocean needs to be at least 79 degrees Fahrenheit to sustain a hurricane -- and the atmosphere is more stable because of clouds of Saharan dust that have swept across the Atlantic.

Studies supporting a link between global warming and storm intensity keep coming. The latest will be published this week by Florida State University geography professor James B. Elsner in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. Elsner found that average air temperatures during hurricane season predict the Atlantic Ocean's surface temperatures, not vice versa, which he said means it is "much more likely the atmosphere is warming the ocean" and helping create more severe storms.

And Judith A. Curry, of Georgia Tech's School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, who co-authored a paper last year suggesting that rising sea temperatures have been accompanied by more intense hurricanes, has challenged Landsea's critique. She said Landsea and like-minded researchers have not "done the hard work" to reanalyze the entire historic hurricane database to determine whether it really is skewed. She does not go as far as Elsner, however, saying his paper identifies "an interesting statistical relationship" but does not physically explain how warmer air might be heating the Atlantic.

Curry's work, in turn, has been challenged by Phil Klotzbach, a research associate at Colorado State University, who published a paper in May suggesting that, since 1986, there has been no global trend in hurricane intensity. Klotzbach's paper, in Geophysical Research Letters, looked at a 20-year period rather than the 35-year period Curry and others examined, which explains how he reached different conclusions.

"At this point, we haven't seen any significant correlation" between hurricanes and climate change, he said.

MIT professor Kerry Emmanuel -- who helped spark the debate with a paper in the journal Nature a year ago suggesting that warmer sea surface temperatures had spawned more destructive storms -- has made an effort to correct for measurement biases in his studies.

He is still criticized by researchers such as Landsea, but Emmanuel responded in an interview that the bias in the underlying data "isn't very large." He added that he and other researchers in Europe have found such a strong link between warming sea surface temperatures and more intense hurricanes that, "You literally have to argue that the correlation is an accident. That to me is improbable."

Curry noted that the hurricane question has focused Americans on global warming far more than other climate-related developments, such as melting glaciers in Greenland. "Katrina was sort of the 9/11 of global warming," she said in an interview. "It was a lot more real and immediate. It had more of a real socioeconomic impact in the way the melting of glaciers doesn't."

Many environmental groups have seized on the public's concern, arguing that 2005's brutal hurricane season highlights the dangers of global warming. The advocacy group Environmental Defense has a new Web site devoted to "Hurricanes and Climate Change," including "11 Facts That Will Blow You Away."

Meanwhile, William Hooke, who directs the American Meteorological Society's policy program, said that whatever the answer turns out to be, "We ought not to lose sight of the fact that we're doing a poor job of protecting ourselves against the hurricanes we have now."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/19/AR2006081900354_pf.html

...

meadd823
08-22-06, 07:15 AM
now what was the topic the seven ways the human race can destroy ourselves or the three things we can do to stop it!

SB_UK
08-22-06, 09:10 AM
There is no doubt! denial (yes) - a desire to maintain the status quo (yes) - but doubt (no) - we all know from personal experience that our environment (weather) is changing ... ... ... every year the change becomes more apparent ... ... ... (- to the naked untrained eye) ... ... ...

[energy and global warming policy director at the Competitive Enterprise Institute] said ... his side is not ready to claim victory ...victory!
victory#!!'
victory!!!##'!@??????????%!
victory???????!!!!!!!!!!*^!???????!!!!!!!!!!*^!
victory!?

Hey (quag)Mire - you lose dude!
S.

So Moron - you wanna' be a winner do you?
ell in Ebell and Ebell in hell (soon)
smell ya' later dude!